America, Iran, a new beginning in bi-lateral relations
Trump's Historic Letter to Iran's Supreme Leader: A Bold Move Amid US-Iran Tensions
US President Donald Trump recently wrote a direct letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, inviting him to negotiate over the country's nuclear program. The enmity between Iran and the US has been at its peak for the past 45 years, which has not only destabilized the Middle East but also made the entire world unsafe.
This is perhaps the first time that a head of government has written a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader to resolve issues with Iran, as all such diplomatic contacts have previously been with the Iranian president or political government. President Trump is a different person, and he does not care about this kind of protocol at all.
Writing a letter directly to Khamenei also means that Trump wants to tell who holds the real power in Iran and since the source of power is the Supreme Leader himself, that is why the letter has been written to him, even though there is an elected president in Iran, the parliament is functioning and interestingly, a major reason for President Masoud Peshkeshian’s success in the presidential elections was that he repeatedly emphasized relations with Western countries and the United States during his election campaign to manage the declining economy.
In those days, there was an election atmosphere in the United States, and it was not possible for President Biden to talk about any kind of negotiations after direct attacks on Israel and Iran. He stood firmly with his ally, Israel. Trump has been calling Iran the root of all conspiracies and chaos in the Middle East, so the question is, why does he want negotiations?
Trump's Letter to Iran: Nuclear Talks, Economic Isolation, and Diplomatic Stalemate
US President Trump wrote to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that he expects Iran to negotiate because it is in his interest. Trump says he would particularly like to discuss Iran's nuclear program and wants some kind of nuclear agreement, but at the same time, he stipulated that Iran will never be allowed to build a nuclear bomb because, according to him, the world cannot afford another nuclear-armed country. Iran has always denied reports that it wants to build nuclear weapons.
According to him, this program is peaceful, and in this context, the fatwa is also mentioned, in which the Supreme Leader had declared nuclear weapons forbidden. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency is not satisfied with Iran’s reduction in uranium enrichment. According to some reports, Iran is very close to making an atom, and its missile tests are coming out every day, which are also widely publicized. In his letter, President Trump praised the Iranian people and called them the “great Iranian” people.
He also expressed his desire in his letter that the Iranian people live in peace and progress. In response to the letter, the Supreme Leader of Iran said, “Iran cannot negotiate under intimidation and threats.” It has been mentioned earlier that Masoud Pezzekiyan is eager to restore relations with the United States and Western countries due to Iran’s declining economy. Iran currently has relations with Russia, China, India, and the Muslim world. However, there is no doubt that it is economically isolated from the world and cannot trade freely. Iran’s foreign minister also responded to Trump’s letter by saying that talks are not possible under threats. So, does this mean that the status quo will remain stagnant?
Iran's Nuclear Deal: Rouhani's Diplomacy, Trump's Rejection, and the Future of Middle East Relations
Two issues are worth considering in this regard. First, it is important to see where Iran stands in the current situation in the Middle East and where a direct confrontation with Israel will take it. Second, Trump is trying to present himself as a peacemaker, so can his desire be exploited? However, it should be remembered that he only talks about the benefits of America or “America First.”
In the past, the driving force behind the Iran nuclear deal was Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who was well aware of Iran’s weak economy and had the ability to negotiate with the West, as he himself was educated at Western universities. When he started the nuclear deal, he chose most of the ministers in his cabinet who had doctorates from Western countries. At that time, it was said that President Obama’s cabinet did not have as many ministers who graduated from American universities as Rouhani’s cabinet. Hassan Rouhani pacified Iranian public opinion while also taming hardliners and then succeeded in bringing the United States and Europe to the table.
He developed a personal understanding with President Obama and his Secretary of State. In 2015, this nuclear deal was reached, which included the United States, China, Britain, France and Germany along with Iran. It is also called the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.” As a result, Rouhani was able to obtain forty billion dollars from the United States, which had been frozen there due to sanctions.
This provided Iran with economic relief, and on the other hand, it also provided opportunities for trade relations with the world. In return, Iran had to reduce its uranium enrichment to a level of five percent, which is insufficient for any type of nuclear weapon. This deal was celebrated all night in Tehran. This matter had just started when Trump came to power. He said that this nuclear deal was the worst deal, and that is why he unilaterally terminated this deal. Now, after assuming the presidency for the second time, Trump wants a nuclear deal that is in accordance with his wishes.
Middle East Tensions: Iran's Economic Struggles, Diplomatic Shifts, and Saudi Mediation
This indicates that Iran has room for economic concessions, but no military program will be allowed, which Iran calls a threat. However, if we examine the current situation in Iran and the Middle East, it is much less powerful than before. Iran's economic situation is not satisfactory, and it cannot sell its oil openly due to sanctions. It is forced to sell its products mostly at low prices and through smuggling. On the other hand, the war in Gaza has caused it great damage, in which the militias it supports have been badly affected.
Plans are being made to take Gaza from Hamas, so Hezbollah's military role in Lebanon has become very ineffective. On the other hand, the Houthi rebels have been greatly damaged by the attacks of the US, UK, and Israel. The biggest blow to Iran was that in Syria, which was its most important ally, Bashar al-Assad, who it supported, was defeated, and he fled and took refuge in Russia. Both Iran and Russia had to leave Syria. Israel also had a direct clash with Tehran, which exposed its military weaknesses.
What options does Iran have now? It denies having a nuclear program, which is why President Trump said it would be in Iran’s best interest to negotiate. Interestingly, Middle Eastern countries are now moving toward the role of mediator. Saudi Arabia was once the leader of aggressive Arab policy, but now its Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, is playing a role as a mediator between different countries, such as hosting talks between Iran, Russia, and Ukraine.
This also means that Saudi Arabia is trying to establish peace in the Middle East with its power. Also, it is aware of the fact that after the reduction in oil consumption and use due to the promotion of alternative energy, a change in its international role is necessary. Earlier, Qatar has been playing the role of mediator. The Taliban, Hamas, and Israel negotiations have all been held on its soil.
Iran is also well aware that there will be a big difference between this time and the last deal. Both its allies and oil buyers, Russia and China, are facing sanctions and tariffs imposed by Trump. On the other hand, European countries, which used to have a soft corner for Iran due to their land proximity to it, are also having particular difficulty these days, as the Ukraine conflict has become a headache for them.
US-Iran Relations: Trump's Negotiation Tactics, Middle East Dynamics, and Regional Challenges
Earlier, when the US pressured Iran for a deal, these countries would mediate, but now it will not be possible for them because there are differences among themselves in the attitude of the US president. NATO is very important for the West at the moment, which Iran and its allies strongly oppose. All these issues will create complications at the negotiating table. The hardliners in Iran are also under pressure these days, and they will not want a moderate president like Peshmerga to succeed in a deal that will hurt their narrative and weaken their control over the state.
Then there is Trump, who offers negotiations and can be happy or angry at any moment. They will definitely see how the US will benefit from Iran, the fifth largest oil producer, because the entry of Iranian oil into the market could harm US oil. Furthermore, a diplomatic agreement has been reached between Iran and Saudi Arabia under the mediation of China, so Iran will have to keep Arab reservations in mind in any deal.
Then there is Israel, which is the foundation of US policy in the Middle East. It should also be remembered that Israel is the only one who sees America’s fundamental interests in the Middle East, which is why Trump showed the red flag to the President of Ukraine but embraced Netanyahu. He also increased aid to Israel and brought forward plans such as the evacuation of Gaza citizens, on which he later made a U-turn.
All these things are well known to all Arabs and neighboring states. That is why some have established diplomatic relations with Israel, while others, like Qatar, have established trade relations with it. Iran is the only enemy of Israel that is involved in a war with it. On the surface, this seems very commendable, but if the region does not have full support and it follows a “watch and wait” policy, then the same thing happens that is happening with Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels, and Iran. Qatar is the largest regional military base of the United States, and in the presence of a US president like Trump, Iran will be in a lot of trouble.
Trump's Letter to Khamenei: Iran's Hardliners, Diplomatic Challenges, and the Path to a Nuclear Deal
Then, it is clear from Trump’s direct letter to the Supreme Leader that the matter will now be between the elders, who have the power to decide. In Iran, the president and the political government are criticized, but when Ayatollah Khamenei himself leads the negotiations, who will dare to criticize? It is certain that Iran's reaction is currently negative, and the reason for this is the special position it has adopted for a long time. Its hardliners are staunchly opposed to the United States and Israel. Therefore, pinning hope on one day or one letter that everything will change in a blink of an eye like the lamp of Allah is nothing but ignorance.
The same is true of the extremists in Israel; it will take time to tame them, but in any case, Trump has taken the first step. Most experts believe that if he succeeds in getting a ceasefire in Ukraine, then the process of restoring the nuclear deal with Iran will begin.
(1).png)