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Negotiations to End the Russia- Ukraine War
The war that reunited the United States and Europe has now turned these allies against each other, and this is due to the rise to power of only one person. That is, Donald Trump. A military philosopher said, “It is easy to make war, but it is very difficult to end it peacefully.”
This is exactly the situation that was seen in the negotiations to end the war in Russia and Ukraine. The story begins with a telephone call between Donald Trump and the Russian president. According to statements from both sides, the main point of this call was to end the war, but the restoration of U.S.-Russia relations was also discussed during the talks between the presidents of the two major powers. In this regard, the initial talks between top diplomats in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, suggest that the talks were more about restoring US-Russia relations and less about a ceasefire.
Trump's Diplomatic Style and Its Impact on Western Allies
Well, the best comment on this may be that this is Trump’s typical diplomatic style, but this diplomacy has created a deep rift between the Western allies. The US wants to negotiate with Russia alone to end the war, while Europe, the European Union, and Ukraine insist on the presence. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky even said that the US and Russia would not accept a unilateral agreement. An interesting thing happened: separate talks were held in Riyadh and Paris on the same war, and those talks were held at a very high level.
At the moment, a khichdi( a recipe of different ingredients along with rice) seems to be brewing, and how the parties will separate the lentils from the rice will be something to be seen. The Western media itself is giving the impression that Russia’s balance looked heavy in the first round of negotiations and that Putin succeeded in achieving everything he wanted. They can celebrate the fact that they separated the centuries-old allies.
Trump-Putin Meeting in Saudi Arabia: Excluding Allies?
A question also arose as to what the future of NATO, the center of Western military power, will be. President Trump has maintained since his first term that NATO is for the defense of Europe, so its countries should contribute more financially to it. Remember, the United States has been bearing most of the burden so far, which is the price of leadership and being a superpower in the Western bloc.
Russia and Ukraine held talks in two capitals on the war. After an hour-and-a-half-long telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart, President Trump announced that he would meet Putin soon in Saudi Arabia on the war in Ukraine, but there was no mention of whether the other side of the war, i.e., Ukraine or America's European allies, would also be present. Did everyone give Trump a blank check? Ukraine is fighting a war, but it is not at the negotiating table.
It is going to become a member of the European Union, but no European country is part of the talks. It is certain that Trump said that he also spoke to Ukrainian President Zelensky before the Russian President’s phone call. Regarding the conversation with President Putin, Trump said in a tweet and later in a conversation with the media that both Russia and Ukraine are willing to end the war. While President Putin said in a conversation with the media that there is no need for European countries to be in the negotiations, they are escalating the war.
Immediately afterwards, the US Secretary of Defense told the Western Security Conference in Brussels that it is not necessary that the Russian-occupied territories be returned to Ukraine, but some may be. Remember, when the conflict in Ukraine began eleven years ago, the Russian-backed Ukrainian president fled and became a refugee in Russia, after which Russia invaded the island of Crimea, occupied it militarily, and made it part of Russia.
America First: The Implications for Western Leadership
The current state of the battlefield is that Russia occupies a fifth of Ukraine, and this, like Crimea, is also a Russian-speaking area. Under the 1928 Treaty of Paris, no country can permanently occupy any part of another country, and this is considered a revolution in the history of war. The Paris Convention guaranteed the integrity of small countries; otherwise, in the past, a country that occupied another country would have simply swallowed it. Now, Russia insists that it will not give up the territories it occupied in the three-year war, and the statement of the American diplomat seems to indicate that the United States is happy with this.
The US Secretary of Defense also said that Ukraine would not be able to become part of NATO. Now, the whole struggle and war was on this issue. Russia's position was that Ukraine should not become part of NATO, and it attacked Ukraine on this basis. So, if Ukraine does not become part of NATO, then what justification will there be for the European Union to defend it? How will the hundreds of billions of dollars and modern equipment that Europe and the United States have given to Ukraine in the past years be accounted for?
Is this just Putin's military and diplomatic victory and is President Trump, who is also the leader of the Western alliance, presenting all this on a platter to him. Trump wants to run American policy as a businessman and his top advisors are also businessmen. They believe in “America First,” but how is it possible that America will give up its superpower role or Western leadership and fly alone? If it is not willing to listen to its allies, why would they keep it as their leader?
Have American policymakers under Trump come to the conclusion that they should now give up world leadership and live like a normal country? This question is also important because President Trump has repeatedly said that he will restore America’s greatness and make it such a great military and economic power that no one can even imagine clashing with it, but the progress that began with the Riyadh talks creates a different impression.
US-Russia Diplomatic Teams Formed in Saudi Arabia
The US Secretary of State and the Russian Foreign Minister headed their respective teams in the talks held in Saudi Arabia. No joint statement was issued from the talks, but two things definitely emerged. Four teams consisting of diplomats from both sides will be formed, which will focus on two issues.
First, the restoration of relations between the US and Russia, and second, the end of the war in Ukraine. After the Riyadh talks, the Russian Foreign Minister said, “These talks took place in a very cordial atmosphere and were very positive.” He stood by Putin’s position and said that Ukraine's joining NATO or the arrival of NATO troops in Ukraine would be unacceptable.
He probably said this for Rob, because when the American Patriot defense system and its modern artillery are there, modern European weapons have been used against it for three years, and European countries are also imposing sanctions on Russia, then this intolerable statement is just empty talk. Yes, Trump and his colleagues have also talked about Ukraine not joining NATO.
Marco Rubio on the Complexity of Ending Wars
Commenting on the current situation, American top diplomat Marco Rubio said that “the end of wars is a very complicated matter.” This is just the beginning of the journey, and that too of a war that European countries call the biggest attack since World War II. It is certain that President Putin has achieved one goal: Russia, after almost thirty years, sat down at the table with the United States as a great power. Putin’s dream of restoring the Soviet Union was at least visible on the negotiating table.
The Russian Foreign Minister's remarks reflected Putin's iron character. Putin probably asked him to do this, seeing Trump's arrogant nature, to give the world an impression of strength, but how will Russia dispel the impression that just two months ago, despite all its military and financial support, its only ally in the Middle East, Bashar al-Assad, suffered a crushing defeat in Syria. This was a complete victory for America, Europe and the Arab countries.
Along with Russia, Iran also had to take a step back. The second major breakthrough was made by Saudi Arabia, and it has once again taken a major step in international affairs after half a century. Earlier, King Faisal had shaken the world by cutting off oil supplies. Now, under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia is making significant progress in global diplomacy. On its soil, the United States and Russia are negotiating a major world war.
BRICS and the New World Order
This role of mediator had been assumed by Qatar until now. The second round of negotiations on the Ukraine war was held in Paris, in which, in addition to the European Union, the British Prime Minister also participated. French President Macron called an emergency meeting, which was intended to make it clear that the war in Ukraine was a European war and that no unilateral solution would be accepted without Europe or Ukraine.
Britain talked about deploying peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, while the head of NATO also described Russia’s actions in Ukraine as the worst aggression and said that there was no question of retreat. But during this time, the United States also continued to hold backdoor talks with Europe and Ukraine. While many European countries said that it would not be possible to defend Ukraine without the United States, they also imposed more sanctions on Russia, and this was not possible without the will of the United States.
Military and diplomatic experts are calling it a very complex and explosive situation. According to diplomatic experts, there are two strong positions on the Russia-Ukraine war and the real test will be how to find a middle ground. That is, accepting the Russian occupation and Ukraine not joining NATO. An important thing is that Russia itself is also part of Europe. Its oil and gas business is carried out with European countries. This was the case during the Soviet Union and is still the case today.
If European countries do not buy Russian oil, it will go bankrupt. All its glory and glory comes from the profits it makes from Europe. So can it achieve a lasting victory by sidelining Europe? It was an ally of European countries in the first and second world wars. Then during the Cold War, its eastern regions became part of Europe.
Putin dreams of Russia becoming a world power again, but the question is how this dream will be possible without Europe when its economy depends on Europe. The Russian Foreign Minister, realizing the current situation, said that Russia and other countries are trying to bring a new order in comparison with the Western world order, but they do not accept the West.
He mentioned China and India in the BRICS in this regard. We will mention Syria again here. Four years ago, it seemed that Russia’s military support had consolidated the power of Bashar al-Assad, a proxy of Russia and Iran, but in a week in December, everything collapsed, and Ahmed al-Sharaa emerged as the new president of Syria.
In Gaza, Russia’s ally, Iran, and its pro-government militias are also in trouble. Trump is not ready to take them into account, while in Lebanon, a US-backed person has become president, who is being put under strong pressure to eliminate Hezbollah’s military status. The US, Europe, and their Arab allies are drawing decisive lines.
Experts also believe that Russia is being given a chance to overcome the isolation it faced due to the war in Ukraine through negotiations, but the one who gives it is Trump, who, as a successful businessman, only deals for profit.
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